Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall?
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 09:09:04 UTC, Kalshi traders price Ashley Hinson (84.0%), Roger Marshall (20.0%). The market has $15K in volume and closes on Tue, 08 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| Roger Marshall | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $15K
- Liquidity: $15K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Ashley Hinson:
If Ashley Hinson's margin in the Iowa U.S. Senate election minus Roger Marshall's margin in the Kansas U.S. Senate election is at least 0 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their U.S. Senate race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places. A difference of exactly 0.00 resolves Hinson Yes.
Sources
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