How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:49:05 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1 (36.0%), 5 (27.1%), 6 (25.6%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| 5 | 27.1% | 27.1¢ | 72.9¢ |
| 6 | 25.6% | 25.6¢ | 74.4¢ |
| 2 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| 0 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| 4 | 13.3% | 13.3¢ | 86.8¢ |
| 3 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| 7+ | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will su…
Sources
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