How low will the Claude Opus 4.8 output token price get this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price $15/MTok or below (6.0%), $20/MTok or below (6.0%), $10/MTok or below (5.0%). The market has $42K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $15/MTok or below | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| $20/MTok or below | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| $10/MTok or below | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| $5/MTok or below | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $42K
- Liquidity: $42K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for $5/MTok or below:
If the Output Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 on https://claude.com/pricing#api is at or below $5 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the price listed of the Output Token Price for Claude Opus 4.8 in 2026 on https://claude.com/pricing#api. The price must be explicitly displayed on the API pricing section of that page. If the product is renamed or succeeded, the closest equivalent product controls. If the page is unavailable on the expiration date, the last available published price will be used. Prices are in USD per MTok. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution — only the standard listed API price applies. If no data is available by the Expiration Date, the last available price for Claude Opus 4.8 in 2026 will be used. If no prior value is available, all strikes shall resolve to “No”.
Sources
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