French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
As of Sun, 30 Aug 2026 06:02:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Dominique de Villepin (49.0%), François Hollande (25.5%), Bernard Cazeneuve (18.5%). The market has $57K in volume and closes on Sun, 18 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique de Villepin | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| François Hollande | 25.5% | 25.5¢ | 74.5¢ |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 18.5% | 18.5¢ | 81.5¢ |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 8.3% | 8.3¢ | 91.7¢ |
| Élisabeth Borne | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ |
| Manuel Bompard | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Michel Barnier | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Gérald Darmanin | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
| François Bayrou | 4.1% | 4.1¢ | 95.9¢ |
| Valérie Pécresse | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.6¢ |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.7¢ |
| Mathilde Panot | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Jordan Bardella | 2.8% | 2.8¢ | 97.2¢ |
| Jean Castex | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
| Carole Delga | 2.4% | 2.4¢ | 97.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $57K
- Liquidity: $162K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources
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