Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 18:57:29 UTC, Kalshi traders price Mexico (79.0%), Colombia (74.0%), Costa Rica (47.0%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Mon, 26 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| Colombia | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| Costa Rica | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| Uruguay | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| Chile | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Mexico:
If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in Mexico (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Each market ranks the runoff votes cast by Brazilian voters in the named country, as reported in the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) Exterior results for that country.
Sources
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