Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 44% (97.0%), At least 45% (96.0%), At least 46% (92.0%). The market has $53K in volume and closes on Wed, 25 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 44% | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| At least 45% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| At least 46% | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| At least 47% | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| At least 47.5% | 68.0% | 68.0¢ | 32.0¢ |
| At least 48% | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| At least 49% | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| At least 50% | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| At least 51% | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| At least 52% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $53K
- Liquidity: $53K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 44%:
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 44% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's share of the valid votes cast in the second round (runoff), calculated as votes received divided by total valid votes cast, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided by the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions in the Contract, resolution uses certified official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, not preliminary results. Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
Sources
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