Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:04 UTC, Kalshi traders price Lula da Silva, ≥1% (13.0%), Lula da Silva, ≥3% (7.0%), Lula da Silva, ≥7% (5.0%). The market has $43K in volume and closes on Mon, 25 Oct 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula da Silva, ≥1% | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, ≥3% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, ≥7% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, ≥5% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, ≥9% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $43K
- Liquidity: $43K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Lula da Silva, ≥1%:
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) received by Lula da Silva minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses. If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
Related markets
- Brazil Presidential election winner?
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?
- Next French presidential election winner?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Next French Presidential Election
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.