Brazil presidential election: 5th place (1st round)
As of Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:42:48 UTC, Kalshi traders price Ronaldo Caiado (96.0%), Renan Santos (3.0%), Augusto Cury (2.0%). The market has $80K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo Caiado | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Renan Santos | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Augusto Cury | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Romeu Zema | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Wilson Grassi | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Rui Costa Pimenta | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Clariana Barão | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Edmilson Costa | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Hertz Dias | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Pablo Marçal | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Samara | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $80K
- Liquidity: $80K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Ronaldo Caiado:
If Ronaldo Caiado finishes in 5th place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For a two-round system where this event specifies the first round: rank is based on certified first-round vote count or percentage In case of an exact tie for fifth place, markets resolve proportionally, $1 divided by the number of tied entities, rounded down. A candidate not listed on this event who finishes fifth makes every named market resolve NO. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve NO.
Sources
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