Brazil presidential election: 4th place (1st round)
As of Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:11:41 UTC, Kalshi traders price Renan Santos (99.0%), Ronaldo Caiado (2.0%), Flávio Bolsonaro (1.0%). The market has $66K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Santos | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Clariana Barão | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Hertz Dias | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Wilson Grassi | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Edmilson Costa | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Pablo Marçal | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Rui Costa Pimenta | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Romeu Zema | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Samara | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Augusto Cury | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $66K
- Liquidity: $66K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Renan Santos:
If Renan Santos finishes in 4th place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For a two-round system where this event specifies the first round: rank is based on certified first-round vote count or percentage In case of an exact tie for fourth place, markets resolve proportionally, $1 divided by the number of tied entities, rounded down. A candidate not listed on this event who finishes fourth makes every named market resolve NO. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve NO.
Sources
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