Berlin state election: AfD vote share?
As of Mon, 12 Oct 2026 09:51:18 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 15% (98.0%), At least 13% (98.0%), At least 11% (98.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 20 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 15% | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| At least 13% | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| At least 11% | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| At least 17% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| At least 19% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| At least 21% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 15%:
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by AfD in the 2026 Berlin state election is 15% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator. Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions, use certified/official results; unofficial results or media declarations may be used only as those provisions allow. If voting is cancelled, suspended, or postponed before it concludes, or no results (certified or unofficial as reported by the Source Agencies) are available by expiration, resolve No, subject to those provisions. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, use the most recent certified percentage.
Sources
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