Battleground Senate Combo: which states will Democrats win?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:59 UTC, Kalshi traders price Democratic sweep (40.0%), Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska (10.0%), Michigan, New Hampshire (8.0%). The market has $13K in volume and closes on Thu, 07 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic sweep | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Michigan, New Hampshire | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| New Hampshire | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Michigan | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| New Hampshire, Alaska | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Republican sweep | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $13K
- Liquidity: $13K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Democratic sweep:
If a Democratic candidate in Maine's U.S. Senate election, a Democratic candidate in Michigan's U.S. Senate election, a Democratic candidate in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election, and a Democratic candidate in Ohio's U.S. Senate special election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A Democratic candidate is a candidate listed with the Democratic Party label on the general election ballot. Any other winner, including an independent, is a candidate other than a Democrat. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. The full rules provide further details.
Sources
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