Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Yashar win?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:06 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 17 (91.0%), Above 20 (69.0%), Above 23 (42.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Wed, 11 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 17 | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Above 20 | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| Above 23 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| Above 26 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Above 29 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Above 32 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Above 35 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 17:
If Yashar has won above 17 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Note: If Yashar runs in this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by that list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party before the election, all seats won by the merged party will be counted, as will any seats won by a joint candidate list the merged party runs on. Yashar refers to the party led by Gadi Eisenkot at issuance. A name change alone does not change its identity. If neither Yashar nor a qualifying joint list or merged successor contests the election, its seat count is zero. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.
Sources
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