Top AI model in September?
As of Tue, 29 Sep 2026 20:49:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price claude-fable-5.1-max (5.0%), claude-opus-5-max (3.0%), claude-opus-4-7 (1.0%). The market has $254K in volume and closes on Wed, 30 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| claude-fable-5.1-max | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| claude-opus-5-max | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| claude-opus-4-7 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| claude-opus-5-high | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| claude-opus-4-6-thinking | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| claude-fable-5 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $254K
- Liquidity: $254K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for claude-fable-5.1-max:
If claude-fable-5.1-max is the top-ranked AI model on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Sources
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