Who will be a part of the next government of Sweden?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 15:26:51 UTC, Kalshi traders price Swedish Social Democratic Party (80.0%), Green Party (67.0%), Centre Party (55.0%). The market has $40K in volume and closes on Wed, 21 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swedish Social Democratic Party | 80.0% | 80.0¢ | 20.0¢ |
| Green Party | 67.0% | 67.0¢ | 33.0¢ |
| Centre Party | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| Left Party | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Christian Democrats | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Liberals | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Moderate Party | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Sweden Democrats | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $40K
- Liquidity: $40K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Swedish Social Democratic Party:
If a coalition that includes Swedish Social Democratic Party make up the next elected ruling government of Sweden before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). A party whose representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position — in Sweden, office as a minister (statsråd) — resolves YES A party that only supports the government from outside it, under a confidence and supply or cooperation agreement of the kind the Sweden Democrats held under the 2022 Tidö Agreement, and holds no ministerial or cabinet-level position, does NOT resolve Yes Political appointees in the Government Offices who are not ministers — state secretaries (statssekreterare), political advisers and coordination-office staff — are NOT ministerial or cabinet-level positions Holding seats in the Riksdag is neither required nor sufficient. Swedish ministers do not have to be members of the Riksdag The government evaluated is the firs…
Sources
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