Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 14:57:06 UTC, Kalshi traders price Samuel Alito (45.0%), Clarence Thomas (26.0%), John Roberts (15.0%). The market has $105K in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Alito | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Clarence Thomas | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| John Roberts | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Sonia Sotomayor | 7.2% | 7.2¢ | 92.8¢ |
| Brett Kavanaugh | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Amy Coney Barrett | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Elena Kagan | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Ketanji Brown Jackson | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Neil Gorsuch | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $105K
- Liquidity: $105K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Samuel Alito:
If Samuel Alito resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes.
Sources
Related markets
- Who will be arrested this year?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime this year?
- When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
- Who will be the next Supreme Court justice in Trump's term?
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.