Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?
As of Fri, 21 Aug 2026 03:51:30 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (80.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Aug 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80.0% | 80.0¢ | 20.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the Supreme Court, in Kian v. Florida, rules the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments require a 12-person jury when a defendant is charged with a serious felony, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court has ruled that the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments entitle a defendant charged with a serious felony to trial by a 12-person jury, such that trying the defendant before a jury of fewer than 12 persons violates that constitutional right, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court rules that the Constitution does not require a 12-person jury in that circumstance. If the case is dismissed, dismissed as improvidently granted, or otherwise disposed of without a merits ruling on that question, including through a remand that does not decide the question, the market resolves to No.
Sources
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