Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:46:34 UTC, Kalshi traders price Alice Weidel (77.0%), Friedrich Merz (17.0%), NOON (8.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Wed, 26 Sep 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice Weidel | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Friedrich Merz | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| NOON | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Baerbel Bas | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Lars Klingbeil | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Felix Banaszak | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Alice Weidel:
If Alice Weidel becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the next German federal election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Chancellor, commands the confidence of the Bundestag, and exercises the full powers of the office rather than serving in a caretaker or acting capacity. A person who becomes Chancellor through an intra-term change of government, without a new federal election, does NOT resolve this market If no government has formed by Aug 26, 2029, No one resolves YES and every other market resolves NO If new elections are called before a government forms, No one resolves YES immediately This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. For this market a qualifying declaration must identify the person who will hold the Chancellorship following government formation; a declaration that a party has won the election does NOT qualify.
Sources
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