Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 21:00:01 UTC, Kalshi traders price Giorgia Meloni (30.0%), Elly Schlein (24.0%), Giuseppe Conte (22.0%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Fri, 22 Dec 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgia Meloni | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Elly Schlein | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| Giuseppe Conte | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Roberto Vannacci | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Roberto Gualtieri | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Ernesto Maria Ruffini | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Silvia Salis | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Gaetano Manfredi | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Antonio Decaro | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Paolo Gentiloni | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Antonio Tajani | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $11K
- Liquidity: $11K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Giorgia Meloni:
If Giorgia Meloni becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
Sources
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