Israeli Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 09:42:43 UTC, Kalshi traders price Likud (66.0%), Yashar (29.0%), The Democrats (5.0%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Thu, 05 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| Yashar | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| The Democrats | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad) | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Haredi Public | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Israel First | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Noam for Israel | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| A Place for All of Us | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Ra'am | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Unity | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| United Torah Judaism | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Zehut | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Zionist Home–The Reservists | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Blue and White | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Religious Zionist Party | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $12K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Likud:
If Likud finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Israeli Knesset election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. Rank is based on Knesset seats, not national vote share, using the Central Elections Committee's final certified result rather than preliminary counts. A party or list awarded no seats cannot place 2nd. Lists with equal seat totals share the places they jointly occupy. For example, if two lists tie for the most seats, both are tied for 1st and 2nd place; if two lists tie for the 2nd-most seats, both are tied for 2nd and 3rd place. Joint candidate lists count as single entities. Their seats are not credited separately to constituent parties. A newly formed joint list is a separate entity; a name change alone does not change a party or list's identity. Seats of separate lists are not combined for surplus-vote agreements or post-election coalitions. If no listed party or list finishes or ties for 2nd place, every market on this event resolves NO. In case of an exact tie for 2nd place among multiple parties as certified by the election authority, the markets shall resolve to $1/(number of tied entities) rounded down. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
Sources
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