French presidential election: who will advance?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 01:26:44 UTC, Kalshi traders price Marine Le Pen (91.0%), Édouard Philippe (43.0%), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (31.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Mon, 17 Apr 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Gabriel Attal | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Bruno Retailleau | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| François Hollande | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Jordan Bardella | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Olivier Faure | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Élisabeth Borne | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $5K
- Liquidity: $5K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Marine Le Pen:
If Marine Le Pen is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.
Sources
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