Next Fed rate cut?

As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 19:02:17 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2029 (88.0%), Before July 2028 (68.0%), Before 2028 (48.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Jan 2029.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Before 202988.0%88.0¢12.0¢
Before July 202868.0%68.0¢32.0¢
Before 202848.0%48.0¢52.0¢
Before July 202724.0%24.0¢76.0¢
Before 20273.0%3.0¢97.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2029:

If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must occur after market issuance and by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. The announcement date controls, regardless of when the reduction takes effect. Announcements outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings count. Each deadline is evaluated separately. A qualifying announcement may cause multiple markets to resolve to Yes.

Sources

Related markets

DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.