Number of Fed rate changes before 2027
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:54 UTC, Kalshi traders price Exactly 2 (71.0%), Exactly 1 (16.0%), Exactly 3 (13.0%). The market has $172K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| Exactly 1 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Exactly 3 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Exactly 4 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Exactly 6 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 7 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 8 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 9 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 10 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 11 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 12 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 5 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $172K
- Liquidity: $172K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Exactly 2:
If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.
Sources
Related markets
- Fed decision in October?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
- Number of emergency rate cuts this year?
- Fed funds rate after October meeting?
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