Fed median dot plot in December 2026
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:58 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 3.9% (95.0%), Above 3.5% (95.0%), Above 3.7% (94.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Wed, 09 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.9% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 3.5% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 3.7% | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| Above 3.6% | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| Above 3.8% | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| Above 4.0% | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| Above 4.1% | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Above 4.2% | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Above 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 3.9%:
If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.9% at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying will be the published median year-end 2026 federal funds rate projection in the Summary of Economic Projections. It is not the federal funds target range announced at the meeting. If the Federal Reserve does not publish a Summary of Economic Projections in connection with the Dec 9, 2026 FOMC meeting, or if the Summary does not include a median year-end 2026 federal funds rate projection, all markets resolve to No.
Sources
Related markets
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