Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas?
As of Mon, 02 Nov 2026 02:03:06 UTC, Kalshi traders price Alaska US Senate (53.0%), Texas US Senate (45.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Mon, 07 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska US Senate | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Texas US Senate | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Alaska US Senate:
If Alaska US Senate has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Alaska US Senate and Texas US Senate as of Dec 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share (expressed as percentage) between first and second place finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator. For ranked-choice elections, the margin is the final-round vote difference between the first- and second-place candidates (the first round if a candidate wins a majority outright) divided by total votes cast in that election, including ballots exhausted before the final round. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. If multiple elections have identical margins and relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options.
Sources
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