Brazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 23:26:28 UTC, Kalshi traders price Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (69.0%), Flávio Bolsonaro (32.0%). The market has $20K in volume and closes on Mon, 26 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $20K
- Liquidity: $20K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva:
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO. The Exterior zone is the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) results unit for votes cast by Brazilian voters outside Brazil; ranking uses its runoff totals, regardless of the national result.
Sources
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