Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 02:02:18 UTC, Kalshi traders price United States (61.0%), China (26.0%), France (5.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Mon, 07 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| China | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| France | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| South Korea | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| United Arab Emirates | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for United States:
If an AI lab based in the United States has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. A model counts for the country where its credited organization is headquartered or, for a division, subsidiary or brand, where its ultimate parent is headquartered (e.g., Google DeepMind counts for the United States). If that country is not listed, every market resolves No.
Sources
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