Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2030 (34.0%), Before Jan 1, 2029 (15.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (5.0%). The market has $19K in volume and closes on Tue, 08 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $19K
- Liquidity: $19K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2030:
If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An acknowledgment that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Sources
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