Will Tucker Carlson form a third party?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (26.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (21.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (14.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Feb 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Sources
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