Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:59 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (61.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Thu, 11 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table. For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion. The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion. Data are nominal and not seasonally adjusted. Revisions published after the first annual 2026 value is released will not be considered.
Sources
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