Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
As of Sun, 09 Aug 2026 05:33:42 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (97.0%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF). This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Sources
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