Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:41:24 UTC, Polymarket traders price Hawaii (8.0%), Louisiana (6.0%), North Carolina (5.9%). The market has $30K in volume and closes on Tue, 08 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Louisiana | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| North Carolina | 5.9% | 5.9¢ | 94.2¢ |
| Texas | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
| New Jersey | 5.4% | 5.4¢ | 94.6¢ |
| Alabama | 5.1% | 5.1¢ | 94.8¢ |
| South Carolina | 5.1% | 5.1¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Mississippi | 4.2% | 4.2¢ | 95.9¢ |
| Rhode Island | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Maryland | 3.7% | 3.7¢ | 96.3¢ |
| New York | 3.1% | 3.1¢ | 96.9¢ |
| Virginia | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Maine | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.2¢ |
| Connecticut | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
| Delaware | 2.2% | 2.2¢ | 97.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $30K
- Liquidity: $17K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No". A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes". Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026. Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisor…
Sources
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