Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:15:09 UTC, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 (50.0%), December 31, 2026 (4.4%). The market has $18K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| December 31, 2026 | 4.4% | 4.4¢ | 95.6¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $18K
- Liquidity: $464
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for March 31, 2027:
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date. A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”. The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies. Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Sources
Related markets
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.