Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2034 (31.0%), Before 2032 (21.0%), Before 2030 (8.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2034 | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Before 2032 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Before 2030 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Before 2028 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2034:
If states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2034, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, a state or jurisdiction has "enacted" NPVIC legislation when such legislation has been signed into law by the governor, has become law without the governor's signature after the constitutional waiting period, or has been enacted by veto override; or has otherwise become law. The effective date of the law is not relevant; only that it has been enacted. Electoral votes are counted based on the apportionment in effect at the time of when the relevant law is enacted. States that have withdrawn from the compact through repeal legislation are not counted toward the total. If a state's membership in the compact is invalidated by a final court ruling before Jan 1, 2034, that state's electoral votes are not counted. Conditional adoptions (e.g., Nevada's requirement for voter approval) are not counted until all conditions are satisfied. Examples that WOULD resolve the market to Yes: 270 or more electoral votes worth of states have enacted NPVIC legislation before Jan 1, 2034 States totaling 269 electoral votes have joined, and one additional state with at least 1 electoral vote enacts NPVIC legislation before Jan 1, 2034 Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes: States totaling 269 electoral votes have enacted NPVIC legislation by Jan 1, 2034 States totaling 270 electoral votes…
Sources
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