Will Russia invade another country by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 18:57:41 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 (20.0%), December 31, 2026 (5.5%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| December 31, 2026 | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $105K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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