Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 10:47:59 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (3.0%), October 31 (0.4%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| October 31 | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $37K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
Related markets
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Will Alberta join the US?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.