Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 08:27:46 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jul 1, 2027 (16.0%), Before Apr 1, 2027 (10.0%), Before Feb 1, 2027 (7.0%). The market has $28K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $28K
- Liquidity: $28K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jul 1, 2027:
If, after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, Flávio Bolsonaro visits Brazil by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes. The following do NOT constitute a visit: Flying over the area without landing Layovers during which the person remains in an airplane Virtual or remote appearances Presence in international waters adjacent to the area Presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds Plans, announcements, or scheduling of future visits that do not occur during the applicable time period For the avoidance of doubt, a visit occurs only when the person exits an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the area, or otherwise physically enters the area not aboard one. Remaining aboard, including during flyovers, drive-throughs, and non-exit refueling stops, does not constitute a visit. Exiting within the area constitutes a visit regardless of duration or method of exit.
Sources
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