Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:32:46 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (24.0%). The market has $34K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes24.0%24.0¢76.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources

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