Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:48:05 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (3.4%). The market has $215K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.6¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $215K
- Liquidity: $21K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources
Related markets
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Will Alberta join the US?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.