Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:00:46 UTC, Polymarket traders price Oil ≥ $85; D Senate (59.9%), Oil ≥ $85; R Senate (31.5%), Oil < $85; D Senate (3.9%). The market has $72K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil ≥ $85; D Senate | 59.9% | 59.9¢ | 40.2¢ |
| Oil ≥ $85; R Senate | 31.5% | 31.5¢ | 68.5¢ |
| Oil < $85; D Senate | 3.9% | 3.9¢ | 96.1¢ |
| Oil < $85; R Senate | 2.1% | 2.1¢ | 97.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $72K
- Liquidity: $1.2M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; R Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; D Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Oil price: The oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant…
Sources
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