Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 07:53:16 UTC, Kalshi traders price Gadi Eisenkot (52.0%), Benjamin Netanyahu (36.0%), Naftali Bennett (5.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eisenkot | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| Naftali Bennett | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Yair Lapid | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Amir Ohana | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Yair Golan | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Gadi Eisenkot:
If the President of Israel gives Gadi Eisenkot the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from The Times of Israel qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. This market concerns the first person to whom the President of Israel assigns the task of forming a government (the mandate) under section 7 of Basic Law: The Government, following the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election. The person must be a member of the incoming Knesset. The mandate counts only once the President formally assigns it; party recommendations, reported intentions, and expected assignments do not qualify. Only the first assignment counts. If that person returns the mandate, fails to form a government, or the Knesset rejects the government, a later assignment to anyone else (including at the request of a majority of Knesset members) does not change the result. If the task is assigned to one Knesset member who has agreed to share or rotate the premiership with others, only the member assigned counts. If the first assignment goes to a person not named in this event, or no one is assigned the…
Sources
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