Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?
As of Fri, 18 Sep 2026 12:10:28 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before December 1, 2026 (20.0%), Before November 1, 2026 (12.0%), Before October 1, 2026 (2.0%). The market has $1.3M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before December 1, 2026 | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Before November 1, 2026 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Before October 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.3M
- Liquidity: $1.3M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before December 1, 2026:
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation. Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.
Sources
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