Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:01 UTC, Kalshi traders price Mike Johnson (33.0%), Jim Jordan (31.0%), Steve Scalise (12.0%). The market has $98K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Johnson | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| Jim Jordan | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Steve Scalise | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Tom Emmer | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Kevin Hern | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Richard Hudson | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| August Pfluger | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Pete Aguilar | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Mike Lawler | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Ted Lieu | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Katherine Clark | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Joe Neguse | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Lisa McClain | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Jay Obernolte | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $98K
- Liquidity: $98K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Mike Johnson:
If Mike Johnson wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. For this indirect election, the winner is the candidate elected House Minority Leader by the House Democratic Caucus or the House Republican Conference of whichever party holds the minority in the 120th Congress, as certified by that body. A later change in the office does not affect resolution. If the minority party selects someone not listed, every market resolves NO. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
Sources
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