Which states will redistrict before the midterms?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:30:58 UTC, Kalshi traders price Tennessee (99.0%), California (99.0%), Texas (98.0%). The market has $2.4M in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.

Updated: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:30:58 UTC

Current odds

Market details

• Venue: Kalshi
• Volume: $2.4M
• Liquidity: $2.4M
• Closes: Sun, 01 Nov 2026

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Tennessee:

If the Tennessee legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. These maps must be: Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; AND Not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in Tennessee as of the Expiration Date; AND In effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption For clarity: Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to YES if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date Maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to NO Maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to NO If no new maps are adopted by Nov 1, 2026, the market will resolve to NO Clarification (09/03/26): Alabama’s May 2026 legislation providing for special congressional primary elections does not constitute adoption of a new congressional district map for purposes of this Contract. The reinstatement and subsequent use of the congressional district map enacted in 2023, including its use in the August 2026 special primary, do not satisfy the Payout Criterion because that map was adopted before Issuance. This market may still resolve to “Yes” if the Alabama legislature adopts a new qualifying congressional district map before November 1, 2026 that otherwise…

Sources

• Source: Kalshi market

Related markets

• Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota?
• Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
• Next French Presidential Election
• Presidential Election Winner 2028
• When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
• Venezuela leader end of 2026?

DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.