Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 09:59:02 UTC, Polymarket traders price No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 (88.5%), December (7.6%), November (3.0%). The market has $32K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 | 88.5% | 88.5¢ | 11.5¢ |
| December | 7.6% | 7.6¢ | 92.4¢ |
| November | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| October | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $32K
- Liquidity: $173K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the m…
Sources
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