Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:45:42 UTC, Polymarket traders price Truist (28.7%), Citigroup (3.4%), RBC (3.4%). The market has $66K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 May 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Truist | 28.7% | 28.7¢ | 71.3¢ |
| Citigroup | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.7¢ |
| RBC | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.7¢ |
| JPMorgan Chase | 3.3% | 3.3¢ | 96.7¢ |
| BNP Paribas | 3.3% | 3.3¢ | 96.7¢ |
| Santander | 3.1% | 3.1¢ | 96.9¢ |
| US Bank | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.0¢ |
| KeyBank | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
| BNY | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
| Wells Fargo | 2.4% | 2.4¢ | 97.6¢ |
| HSBC | 2.4% | 2.4¢ | 97.7¢ |
| Lloyds | 2.3% | 2.3¢ | 97.7¢ |
| Bank of America | 2.2% | 2.2¢ | 97.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $66K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range: - The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions. - The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank. - A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention. - The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-ma…
Sources
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