Which banks will take OpenAI public?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Stifel Financial (40.0%), Raymond James (38.0%), Needham & Company (35.0%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Financial | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| Raymond James | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Needham & Company | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Rothschild & Co | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| William Blair | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| Allen & Company | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Qatalyst Partners | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Piper Sandler | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Perella Weinberg Partners | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Centerview | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Greenhill & Co | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Lazard | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Moelis & Company | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| PJT Partners | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Evercore | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $12K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Stifel Financial:
If Stifel Financial serves as a lead underwriter for OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The bank must serve as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator as documented in SEC filings (Form S-1 or final prospectus) or official announcements. Joint book-running managers qualify. Direct listings, SPAC mergers, secondary offerings, and private placements do not qualify. If the bank merges with another institution, the surviving entity under any name qualifies. For dual listings, only the U.S. portion is considered. Even if the IPO is later shelved, the market resolves Yes based on the announcement of the underwriting relationship.
Sources
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