When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
As of Thu, 24 Sep 2026 17:53:38 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Dec 1, 2026 (96.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (96.0%), Before Nov 1, 2026 (89.0%). The market has $15K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $15K
- Liquidity: $15K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Dec 1, 2026:
If the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An extension, modification, or replacement of the tariff truce in effect at Issuance qualifies as a new mutual tariff agreement. A qualifying agreement must address tariff rates or tariff suspensions; agreements limited to other trade matters do not count. Unilateral tariff actions do not count, even if the other side declines to respond. Reports that negotiations are ongoing, near completion, or agreed in principle by only one side do not count. An agreement qualifies once reached and confirmed by both governments, regardless of when it takes effect. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Sources
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