When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:18 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Oct 1, 2027 (75.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (70.0%), Before Apr 1, 2027 (54.0%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 75.0% | 75.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Oct 1, 2027:
If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
Sources
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