What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 29, 2026?
As of Thu, 29 Oct 2026 04:15:46 UTC, Kalshi traders price Magnitude of at least 5.8 (99.0%), Magnitude of at least 5.6 (99.0%), Magnitude of at least 6.0 (49.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Thu, 29 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magnitude of at least 5.8 | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 5.6 | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.0 | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.2 | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.4 | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.6 | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 7.0 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.8 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Magnitude of at least 5.8:
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 29, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
Sources
Related markets
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- California Governor winner? (Person)
- Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.