How strong will Vance be?
As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 23:39:28 UTC, Polymarket traders price Category 3 (37.0%), Category 4 (32.0%), Category 2 (28.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Thu, 05 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Category 3 | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| Category 4 | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| Category 2 | 28.5% | 28.5¢ | 71.5¢ |
| Category 1 or weaker | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Category 5 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Vance (NHC designation EP222026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Vance in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. If Vance never reaches Category 1 strength, "Category 1 or weaker" will resolve to "Yes". Wind speeds will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Maximum sustained winds are reported in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Vance will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Vance dissipates. If Vance has not dissipated by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the advisory data needed to determine its peak intensity has not been published by that time, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data is still unavailable at the end of that per…
Sources
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